What Is Estimated Action Rate in Meta Ads?

Your bid says what a result is worth to you. The estimated action rate is Meta’s forecast of how likely this specific person is to produce that result if they see your ad. Meta’s bid cap guide multiplies the two to arrive at a bid per impression, so the predicted rate changes how much your bid is worth in the auction.

Where does estimated action rate fit in the auction?

Meta picks the auction winner by total value, which combines three factors: your bid, estimated action rates and ad quality. Meta defines estimated action rates as an estimate of whether a particular person engages with or converts from a particular ad.

Meta says estimated action rates and ad quality together measure ad relevance. Because both are part of the auction, an ad that is more relevant to a person can win against ads with higher bids.

How does it turn your bid into a price per impression?

Meta’s bid cap guide shows the calculation:

Bid per impression = bid per estimated action × estimated action rate

The figures below are made-up inputs to show the arithmetic, not Meta data:

Bid per estimated action	Estimated action rate	Bid per impression
$20	2%	$0.40
$20	4%	$0.80
$10	4%	$0.40

The first and last rows bid the same per impression, even though one advertiser values the action at half the price. A doubled estimated rate makes up for a halved bid.

Meta adds that estimated actions are predictions and not guaranteed. The actions estimated in the auction may not exactly match what you see in reporting, though Meta says they should be close.

Can you see how your ad’s expected rates compare?

Ad relevance diagnostics offer related signals. Engagement rate ranking compares your ad’s expected engagement rate with ads competing for the same audience, where expected engagement means the likelihood that a person will click, react to, comment on, share or expand the ad. Conversion rate ranking compares your ad’s expected conversion rate with ads that have the same optimization goal and audience.

Meta states that these diagnostics are not inputs into the auction. They are only available for ads with at least 500 impressions.

What does Meta suggest when expected rates look weak?

When diagnostics point to low expected engagement or conversion, Meta’s guidance is:

1. Make the ad more engaging, interesting or eye-catching when engagement rate ranking is below average.
2. Improve the ad’s call to action or the post-click experience when conversion rate ranking is below average.
3. Target an audience more likely to interact with or convert from the ad.
4. Drop engagement bait, such as asking for likes or comments, which Meta says will not improve performance.

Meta also says to use diagnostics to diagnose underperforming ads, not to optimize ads that already meet your goals.

FAQ

Is estimated action rate the same as conversion rate ranking?

No. Estimated action rate is one of the factors Meta uses inside each auction. Conversion rate ranking is a diagnostic that compares your ad’s expected conversion rate with competing ads after delivery, and Meta states that ad relevance diagnostics are not inputs into the auction.

Are estimated actions guaranteed?

No. Meta’s bid cap guide says estimated actions are only predictions and are not guaranteed. The actions estimated in the auction may not exactly match what appears in reporting, although Meta says the two should be close.

Can a more relevant ad beat a higher bid?

Yes. Meta says estimated action rates and ad quality together measure ad relevance. Because both are components of the auction, an ad that is more relevant to a person could win an auction against ads with higher bids.